Warnings that index funds have broken the stock market all imply a threshold: a share of the market at which price discovery fails. Nobody making the argument names it. Owen Lamont, writing in the Financial Analysts Journal, argues that no such number exists short of complete passive ownership, and that what actually determines whether prices stay informative is who is left doing the trading. His case, the strongest peer-reviewed research against it, and what the performance
New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.
Robin Powell
Jan 38 min read
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