BLOG

Why do mutual funds underperform? New research from the University of Sydney reveals that at least 55% of fund performance is attributable to luck, not skill. Worse, luck actively predicts future underperformance: lucky funds attract inflows, grow too large, and lose their capacity to generate returns. Morningstar's five-star funds significantly underperform one-star funds in subsequent periods. Stop chasing yesterday's winners and own the market at low cost.

New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.

Does the January barometer really predict stock market returns? This Wall Street saying claims January's performance forecasts the whole year. But the evidence tells a different story. While the pattern appears accurate roughly 70% of the time, this success rate is misleading — markets rise in most years anyway. Before betting your portfolio on this calendar superstition, discover what the data actually shows.

The most valuable New Year's resolution for investors in 2026? Tune out the noise. The evidence is clear: market forecasters are no better than coin flippers, yet we keep listening. Here's why ignoring predictions might be the best investment decision you make this year.

S&P 500 concentration risk is at historic highs. If you own a global tracker, your portfolio may be far less diversified than you think. Here's what you can do about it.