Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
New research from Harvard Business School reveals that during every stock market bubble, the experts aren't sceptics being drowned out — they're true believers. Analyst forecasts soar, short sellers vanish, and the media barely whispers the word 'bubble'. Worse, the degree of optimism actually predicts crash probability. If nobody warns you before a bubble bursts, what can you do? Build a portfolio that doesn't depend on the alarm working at all.
Robin Powell
Mar 187 min read
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