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The case for factor investing in emerging markets
Most investors either ignore emerging markets or hand their money to active managers who underperform. Academic research points to a better approach: factor investing in emerging markets, targeting the company characteristics that have persistently driven higher returns.
Robin Powell
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What history tells us about expected stock returns after a bull run
New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.
Robin Powell
Jan 38 min read
The financial bubble delusion: why crash fears cost investors more than crashes themselves
Most investors vastly overestimate financial bubble frequency, but Yale research spanning three centuries reveals they occur in under 0.5% of market periods. Here's why crash fears damage wealth more than crashes themselves and what history teaches about staying invested during market booms.
Robin Powell
Sep 16, 202510 min read
Equity duration: why stock-picking got harder after 1945
A new study shows how equity duration reshaped markets after 1945, making stock-picking harder and strengthening the case for evidence-based investing.
Robin Powell
Sep 14, 20256 min read
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