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Why active funds underperform even when the manager picks well
The managers running the biggest active funds picked stocks that beat the market in 2025 — and most still lagged their benchmark. A Morningstar do-nothing experiment and a body of academic research explain why active funds underperform even when the picking is good: skilled buying undone by poor selling, the hidden cost of trading, and the incentives that keep managers churning. The UK evidence points the same way.
Robin Powell
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Does the January barometer really work?
Does the January barometer really predict stock market returns? This Wall Street saying claims January's performance forecasts the whole year. But the evidence tells a different story. While the pattern appears accurate roughly 70% of the time, this success rate is misleading — markets rise in most years anyway. Before betting your portfolio on this calendar superstition, discover what the data actually shows.
Robin Powell
Jan 17 min read
A New Year's resolution every investor should embrace
The most valuable New Year's resolution for investors in 2026? Tune out the noise. The evidence is clear: market forecasters are no better than coin flippers, yet we keep listening. Here's why ignoring predictions might be the best investment decision you make this year.
Robin Powell
Dec 30, 20259 min read
Trump trades and the forecasting trap: why political betting reveals a costly investment truth
Trump trades—betting on presidential policies — seem obvious. Reality? Investors who bet against Trump taking action earned S&P 500 returns. Believers lost 20%.
Robin Powell
Oct 24, 202512 min read
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