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Private equity returns are broken: the case of David Lloyd

Private equity returns have collapsed as the $3.2 trillion exit crisis deepens. Why David Lloyd's sale to itself reveals an industry model that's fundamentally broken.

Robin Powell

A hand rolling dice on a wooden table symbolising the role of chance in performance persistence and fund returns

The performance persistence myth: what new research tells us about the latest hot funds

Chasing last year’s top funds is seductive — and usually self-defeating. New evidence shows performance persistence is largely a mirage: most “winners” slip quickly, especially when markets get rough. Investors who keep costs low and own the market have far better odds of reaching their goals.

Robin Powell

4 days ago11 min read

St James's Place has launched new index funds at 0.2% annually — a significant milestone for Britain's largest wealth manager and welcome news for consumers

SJP's low-cost funds: how good are they?

SJP's low-cost funds, charging 0.2%, look competitive — but total costs matter more. What existing and prospective SJP clients need to know about value.

Robin Powell

Oct 97 min read

Active managers blame the scoreboard, not their own performance. But the more they attack the SPIVA persistence scorecard, the more they reveal about the weakness of their own case.

SPIVA persistence scorecard: why Robin Wigglesworth says the critics got it wrong

The SPIVA persistence scorecard has become a lightning rod for debate. Robin Wigglesworth shows how active managers’ critique collapses under scrutiny — and why persistence is the Achilles’ heel of their case.

Robin Powell

Sep 195 min read

Cartoon showing a carnival barker in striped jacket and boater hat standing beside a complex 'Buffer Fund Protection Game' booth with spinning wheel marked with percentages (9%, 10%, 15%). The barker tells a confused investor holding a phone: 'Our sophisticated strategy works perfectly... when Jupiter aligns with Mars on the third Wednesday in the month.' In the background, disappointed previous customers walk away from a carnival tent labeled 'Downside Protection' while the rules board shows fine print.

The buffer fund mirage: why simple beats complex for downside protection

New research reveals buffer fund marketing promises don't match reality. AQR Capital Management's comprehensive study of 401 buffer funds shows these complex products consistently underperform simple stock-cash combinations whilst failing to deliver reliable downside protection. The median buffer fund charges 0.79% annually but trails reference assets by 0.07 in risk-adjusted returns, with performance worsening over time.

Robin Powell

Sep 49 min read

Fund manager looking stressed while reviewing declining market performance on computer screen, with red downward trending chart visible on monitor behind him

Fund managers aren't bad at picking stocks, but they're terrible at this

Fund managers consistently fail at market timing despite claiming expertise, reveals the largest global study of mutual fund performance. While stock picking skills vary by country, timing abilities are universally poor across 21,000 funds in 35 nations. New research challenges industry claims about professional investment skills and fee justification.

TEBI

Aug 44 min read

Is Terry Smith genuinely skilled or did he just get lucky?

Terry Smith's Fundsmith Equity fund has underperformed for four years, losing billions in outflows. But is this evidence of declining skill or simply bad luck? Academic research reveals it takes 36-800 years of data to statistically prove a fund manager has genuine talent rather than benefiting from chance. Smith's 14-year track record, despite early success, is statistically meaningless. His recent struggles with NVIDIA, Apple and Novo Nordisk may look like stock-picking err

TEBI

Jul 87 min read