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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Robin Powell
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Nobody warns you before a bubble bursts
New research from Harvard Business School reveals that during every stock market bubble, the experts aren't sceptics being drowned out — they're true believers. Analyst forecasts soar, short sellers vanish, and the media barely whispers the word 'bubble'. Worse, the degree of optimism actually predicts crash probability. If nobody warns you before a bubble bursts, what can you do? Build a portfolio that doesn't depend on the alarm working at all.
Robin Powell
Mar 187 min read
Fewer bubble warnings mean greater danger
Bubble warnings spiked in late 2025, then faded — but AI stock valuations haven't budged. New research analysing over 5,000 crashes reveals why that's significant: at genuine peaks, warnings are rare and sceptics are ignored. Widespread concern may actually signal safety.
Robin Powell
Jan 2710 min read
What history tells us about expected stock returns after a bull run
New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.
Robin Powell
Jan 38 min read
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