Warnings that index funds have broken the stock market all imply a threshold: a share of the market at which price discovery fails. Nobody making the argument names it. Owen Lamont, writing in the Financial Analysts Journal, argues that no such number exists short of complete passive ownership, and that what actually determines whether prices stay informative is who is left doing the trading. His case, the strongest peer-reviewed research against it, and what the performance
Does the January barometer really predict stock market returns? This Wall Street saying claims January's performance forecasts the whole year. But the evidence tells a different story. While the pattern appears accurate roughly 70% of the time, this success rate is misleading — markets rise in most years anyway. Before betting your portfolio on this calendar superstition, discover what the data actually shows.
Robin Powell
Jan 17 min read
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