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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Robin Powell
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Weather and investing: how sunshine skews stock returns
Most investors assume prices are moved by information: earnings, interest rates, news. A peer-reviewed study of 37 years of Nasdaq data suggests something stranger. The poor returns of speculative 'lottery-like' stocks are concentrated after sunny weather in the cities where the firms are based — and largely vanish after cloudy spells. The finding says less about forecasts than about how quietly mood reaches our decisions, and why rules-based investing exists.
Robin Powell
Jul 96 min read
The World Cup stock market effect: Is it an actual thing?
The World Cup is a genuine, enormous attention shock — Wikipedia traffic spikes eightfold during the final. Yet a new working paper finds the World Cup stock market effect barely registers in the deep, global markets that carry most of the world's money, and shows how two ordinary ways of measuring it can conjure the effect out of nothing. Where the distraction does bite is among retail investors trading on the noise — the people the original studies never quite looked at.
Robin Powell
Jun 258 min read
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