The managers running the biggest active funds picked stocks that beat the market in 2025 — and most still lagged their benchmark. A Morningstar do-nothing experiment and a body of academic research explain why active funds underperform even when the picking is good: skilled buying undone by poor selling, the hidden cost of trading, and the incentives that keep managers churning. The UK evidence points the same way.
Decades of research show that reliably spotting market bubbles before they burst is nigh on impossible. Despite warnings from experts, academic studies confirm market timing strategies consistently fail for most investors. Attempting to time markets leads to missed gains , higher transaction costs , and emotional stress. Instead, focus on diversification , controlling costs , and planning for volatility. The best defence against bubbles is preparation, not prediction.
TEBI
Jun 24, 20257 min read
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