Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.
Decades of research show that reliably spotting market bubbles before they burst is nigh on impossible. Despite warnings from experts, academic studies confirm market timing strategies consistently fail for most investors. Attempting to time markets leads to missed gains , higher transaction costs , and emotional stress. Instead, focus on diversification , controlling costs , and planning for volatility. The best defence against bubbles is preparation, not prediction.
TEBI
Jun 247 min read
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