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What is evidence-based investing?

Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.

Robin Powell

A Ladbrokes betting slip beside a share certificate on a pub table, illustrating the difference between betting versus investing

Betting versus investing: why crowds win in one but not the other

Prediction markets and sports betting price outcomes almost as accurately as the stock market prices companies. A new Morgan Stanley report explains why that shared accuracy still leaves nearly every bettor poorer, and nearly every long-term investor richer.

TEBI

Aug 64 min read

A living room in the evening with a financial news broadcast playing on a wall-mounted television, a phone lying face-down on the sofa arm and a mug of tea on the side table

The 'biggest market anomaly ever found' — and why you still can't beat the market

A new working paper has documented the largest price inefficiency ever found in the stock market: a pure-news signal with a Sharpe ratio of 3.1, more than double any known factor. But the researchers used a frontier AI model, millions of news articles and institutional trading costs to find it — and the same evidence that shows markets are inefficient also shows why an ordinary investor still can't beat them.