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How much passive investing is too much?
Warnings that index funds have broken the stock market all imply a threshold: a share of the market at which price discovery fails. Nobody making the argument names it. Owen Lamont, writing in the Financial Analysts Journal, argues that no such number exists short of complete passive ownership, and that what actually determines whether prices stay informative is who is left doing the trading. His case, the strongest peer-reviewed research against it, and what the performance
Robin Powell
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Sector rotation: would seeing it coming make you rich?
A sharp sector rotation has swept the US stock market, and the instinct is that a clever forecaster could have called it and cashed in. But experiments by Elm Wealth — first with finance graduates handed tomorrow's headlines, then with leading AI models — suggest that even perfect foreknowledge rarely makes an investor money. The deciding factor turns out to be not foresight but how much you choose to stake.
Robin Powell
Jun 279 min read
Chasing returns: seven decades of evidence on why investors get it wrong
Two investors can study the same rising market and reach opposite conclusions about what comes next. A new MIT working paper spanning 68 years finds that only the contrarian, sophisticated forecast has ever reliably predicted returns, while the bullishness of ordinary investors — the instinct behind chasing returns — predicts little or points the wrong way. Here is what seven decades of evidence say that feeling is really worth.
Robin Powell
Jun 227 min read
Does "buy the dip" actually work?
"Buy the dip" sounds like smart investing — wait for prices to fall, then pounce. But 60 years of evidence reveals the strategy underperforms passive investing more than 60% of the time. Here's why waiting for the perfect moment costs more than it saves.
Robin Powell
Dec 18, 20258 min read
Investing at market highs: three paths to overcoming paralysis
Investing at market highs often triggers fear and hesitation. Yet a century of market data shows that record peaks are a normal feature of long-term growth. This article explores three clear, evidence-based ways to approach investing at market highs without falling into paralysis.
Robin Powell
Oct 22, 202517 min read
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