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A sharp sector rotation has swept the US stock market, and the instinct is that a clever forecaster could have called it and cashed in. But experiments by Elm Wealth — first with finance graduates handed tomorrow's headlines, then with leading AI models — suggest that even perfect foreknowledge rarely makes an investor money. The deciding factor turns out to be not foresight but how much you choose to stake.

Two investors can study the same rising market and reach opposite conclusions about what comes next. A new MIT working paper spanning 68 years finds that only the contrarian, sophisticated forecast has ever reliably predicted returns, while the bullishness of ordinary investors — the instinct behind chasing returns — predicts little or points the wrong way. Here is what seven decades of evidence say that feeling is really worth.

"Buy the dip" sounds like smart investing — wait for prices to fall, then pounce. But 60 years of evidence reveals the strategy underperforms passive investing more than 60% of the time. Here's why waiting for the perfect moment costs more than it saves.

Investing at market highs often triggers fear and hesitation. Yet a century of market data shows that record peaks are a normal feature of long-term growth. This article explores three clear, evidence-based ways to approach investing at market highs without falling into paralysis.