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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Robin Powell
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UK fund persistence: why yesterday's winners rarely repeat
Theodore Sturgeon argued that the surviving tenth of any field is worth finding. New data from S&P Dow Jones Indices tests whether that holds for UK funds. Of the 80 sterling-denominated UK equity funds in the top quartile at the end of 2021, three were still there four years later. Over two non-overlapping five-year periods, funds starting in the third quartile reached the top far more often than funds already there held their place.
TEBI
Aug 106 min read
Past performance is better at spotting losers than winners
Investors instinctively turn to past performance when choosing funds. But new Morningstar research on 6,003 European funds finds it is far more reliable as a warning sign than a buy signal.
Robin Powell
Jun 293 min read
The performance persistence myth: what new research tells us about the latest hot funds
Chasing last year’s top funds is seductive — and usually self-defeating. New evidence shows performance persistence is largely a mirage: most “winners” slip quickly, especially when markets get rough. Investors who keep costs low and own the market have far better odds of reaching their goals.
Robin Powell
Oct 20, 202511 min read
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