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The Terry Smith timing trap: why most investors lost money

Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.

Robin Powell

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Line chart showing Fundsmith Equity Fund (blue line) versus MSCI World Index (red line) from November 2010 to October 2025. Fundsmith significantly outperformed through 2020, reaching 625% cumulative return versus the index's 310%. From late 2021 onwards, the gap narrowed dramatically as Fundsmith stagnated around 625% while the index climbed to 520%. Most investor money entered the fund when the performance gap was widest, meaning late arrivals experienced only the period of underperformance.

The Terry Smith timing trap: why most investors lost money

Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.

Robin Powell

Nov 36 min read

Tennis court illustrating the David Lloyd story — where private equity returns reveal an industry-wide crisis

Private equity returns are broken: the case of David Lloyd

Private equity returns have collapsed as the $3.2 trillion exit crisis deepens. Why David Lloyd's sale to itself reveals an industry model that's fundamentally broken.

Robin Powell

Sep 2812 min read

Fund manager looking stressed while reviewing declining market performance on computer screen, with red downward trending chart visible on monitor behind him

Fund managers aren't bad at picking stocks, but they're terrible at this

Fund managers consistently fail at market timing despite claiming expertise, reveals the largest global study of mutual fund performance. While stock picking skills vary by country, timing abilities are universally poor across 21,000 funds in 35 nations. New research challenges industry claims about professional investment skills and fee justification.