Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.
The relationship between active funds and volatility has long been debated, with fund managers claiming turbulent markets play to their strengths. 2025's Trump-driven chaos provided the perfect test case – yet 71% of active equity managers still underperformed passive benchmarks. Despite currency swings, sectoral rotations, and policy uncertainty, the 29% success rate barely budged from 2024's 28.8%. Academic evidence spanning 25 years confirms: volatility doesn't save active
TEBI
Aug 712 min read
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