Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.
Robin Powell
Nov 3, 20256 min read
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