How much of your portfolio should be in stocks? It's one of investing's most important questions — and the standard answer is costing the average investor the equivalent of 2% of their lifetime consumption. Yale economists have finally built something better, and it fits in a spreadsheet.
New research from Harvard Business School reveals that during every stock market bubble, the experts aren't sceptics being drowned out — they're true believers. Analyst forecasts soar, short sellers vanish, and the media barely whispers the word 'bubble'. Worse, the degree of optimism actually predicts crash probability. If nobody warns you before a bubble bursts, what can you do? Build a portfolio that doesn't depend on the alarm working at all.
Robin Powell
Mar 187 min read
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