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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Robin Powell
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Why market narratives survive being proven wrong
When a false claim is corrected, we assume its influence disappears. New experimental evidence suggests that is true for numbers but not for stories: a debunked statistic leaves almost no trace, while a debunked story keeps shaping beliefs — and leaves people more confident, not less. This is what the finding means for the market narratives investors absorb every day, and why the beliefs held most firmly may deserve the most scrutiny.
TEBI
Jul 207 min read
Cognitive surrender: what AI is doing to investors' judgment
AI now sits beside roughly a third of British retail investors as they make money decisions. New research from Wharton, MIT and a Nobel laureate puts a number on what it's doing to their judgment: confidence rises by nearly 12 percentage points, even when the AI is wrong half the time. The researchers call it cognitive surrender — and the investors most prone to it are the ones least likely to notice.
Robin Powell
May 288 min read
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