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The Terry Smith timing trap: why most investors lost money
Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.
Robin Powell
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Optimism as a business model: Why investment consultants can't afford to recommend simplicity
nvestment consultants have systematically raised their return assumptions for alternative assets since 2001 — not because performance improved, but because complexity generates fees. New research from Stanford and Harvard reveals how consultant optimism drives billions in pension allocations, despite mounting evidence that simple, low-cost indexed strategies often outperform alternatives-heavy portfolios. The entire boom may be built on structural conflicts rather than superi
Robin Powell
Oct 2814 min read
Does Warren Buffett beat the market? The statistical truth behind the Oracle's record
Warren Buffett built his fortune through active investing, yet tells his family to put 90% in index funds. Why? His 44-year record reveals the answer: from 1981-2002, he achieved statistically significant alpha. But from 2003-2024, his performance became indistinguishable from luck. Academic analysis shows even his early success was systematic factor exposure plus cheap leverage, not stock-picking magic. If Buffett couldn't sustain alpha in mature markets, your fund manager w
Robin Powell
Oct 1814 min read
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