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Private equity returns are broken: the case of David Lloyd
Private equity returns have collapsed as the $3.2 trillion exit crisis deepens. Why David Lloyd's sale to itself reveals an industry model that's fundamentally broken.
Robin Powell
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Optimism as a business model: Why investment consultants can't afford to recommend simplicity
nvestment consultants have systematically raised their return assumptions for alternative assets since 2001 — not because performance improved, but because complexity generates fees. New research from Stanford and Harvard reveals how consultant optimism drives billions in pension allocations, despite mounting evidence that simple, low-cost indexed strategies often outperform alternatives-heavy portfolios. The entire boom may be built on structural conflicts rather than superi
Robin Powell
58 minutes ago14 min read
Does Warren Buffett beat the market? The statistical truth behind the Oracle's record
Warren Buffett built his fortune through active investing, yet tells his family to put 90% in index funds. Why? His 44-year record reveals the answer: from 1981-2002, he achieved statistically significant alpha. But from 2003-2024, his performance became indistinguishable from luck. Academic analysis shows even his early success was systematic factor exposure plus cheap leverage, not stock-picking magic. If Buffett couldn't sustain alpha in mature markets, your fund manager w
Robin Powell
Oct 1814 min read
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