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New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.

Does the January barometer really predict stock market returns? This Wall Street saying claims January's performance forecasts the whole year. But the evidence tells a different story. While the pattern appears accurate roughly 70% of the time, this success rate is misleading — markets rise in most years anyway. Before betting your portfolio on this calendar superstition, discover what the data actually shows.

A new study shows how equity duration reshaped markets after 1945, making stock-picking harder and strengthening the case for evidence-based investing.

Multiple lines of evidence suggest future stock market returns will fall short of historical averages. Major institutions, legendary investors, and academic research all point to the same conclusion: expect 3-6% annual returns vs historical 8-10%. High valuations, demographic headwinds, and bond competition create structural challenges. Investors need realistic planning, global diversification, and evidence-based strategies.

The investing industry gives the impression that beating the market is all about skill, but the evidence tells us it's largely a game of...

Eugene Fama is one of several Nobel Prize-winning economists whose research undermines the case for using actively managed funds This is...

A debate has raged in recent years about the wisdom or otherwise of investing in government bonds. I’ve advocated their inclusion in...

President Trump's announcement on tariffs has caused a global market storm. Here are some tips on staying calm where investors panic.

Greater choice doesn't necessarily mean better outcomes for investors. Learn why active ETFs, private credit, and option-based ETFs may not

The investing industry loves to make bold predictions. Financial commentators often appear in the media claiming to foresee market trends...

If I had £1 for every time I read that index funds are too heavily concentrated in big US tech stocks I would be a very rich man. It is...

The financial markets have changed beyond all recognition since the late 1960s and early 1970s. But many investment strategies haven't.