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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.

Robin Powell
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The hidden costs of passive investing: how significant are they?
The hidden costs of passive investing can add hundreds of basis points annually beyond headline fees. New research reveals how index funds face invisible expenses from rebalancing friction, tracking errors, and market impact that never appear on fund fact sheets. UK investors may pay far more than the advertised 0.1% management charge.

TEBI
Jul 14, 202511 min read


Is Terry Smith genuinely skilled or did he just get lucky?
Terry Smith's Fundsmith Equity fund has underperformed for four years, losing billions in outflows. But is this evidence of declining skill or simply bad luck? Academic research reveals it takes 36-800 years of data to statistically prove a fund manager has genuine talent rather than benefiting from chance. Smith's 14-year track record, despite early success, is statistically meaningless. His recent struggles with NVIDIA, Apple and Novo Nordisk may look like stock-picking err

TEBI
Jul 8, 20257 min read


Through the looking glass: What the private equity industry doesn't want you to see
The private equity industry promises profound pension improvements for retail investors, but Oxford professor Ludovic Phalippou's research reveals a different reality. Like Alice in Wonderland, investors risk falling down a rabbit hole where fund managers capture £1 trillion in fees while delivering returns barely better than simple index funds.

TEBI
Jul 2, 20257 min read


Active fund fees: how inflated are they?
New research reveals active fund fees are far too high for the value they add. So how much is active management actually worth? Investors routinely pay substantial active fund fees, typically five to ten times more than passive alternatives. It's the equivalent of paying £7 or £8 for a pint of milk—but is this premium actually justified? The academic case against high active fund fees has been building for nearly three decades. Now, groundbreaking research by Andrew Ang and D

TEBI
Jun 30, 20255 min read


Can you spot a market bubble before it bursts?
Decades of research show that reliably spotting market bubbles before they burst is nigh on impossible. Despite warnings from experts, academic studies confirm market timing strategies consistently fail for most investors. Attempting to time markets leads to missed gains , higher transaction costs , and emotional stress. Instead, focus on diversification , controlling costs , and planning for volatility. The best defence against bubbles is preparation, not prediction.

TEBI
Jun 24, 20257 min read


Why beating the market is just a game of chance
The investing industry gives the impression that beating the market is all about skill, but the evidence tells us it's largely a game of chance This is the third article in our 12-part series on Mark Hebner's "Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors." Missed the previous steps? Catch up here on Step 1 and Step 2. If Nobel Prize-winning research wasn't enough to convince you that active investing is futile, perhaps the brutal statistics on stock picking

TEBI
Jun 19, 20253 min read


Factor-based strategies are doing fine — it’s the narrative that’s broken
Factor-based strategies are delivering strong returns, especially internationally. The 2025 performance surge proves the death narrative was wrong.

TEBI
Jun 16, 20258 min read


Why Nobel Prize-winning economists reject active investing
Eugene Fama is one of several Nobel Prize-winning economists whose research undermines the case for using actively managed funds This is the second article in our 12-part series on Mark Hebner's Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors. If you missed the first instalment on the addictive nature of active investing, catch up before continuing. In traditional recovery programs, the second step involves acknowledging a higher power. For investors trapped i

TEBI
Jun 12, 20253 min read


Active investing: Be honest, are you a little bit addicted?
Active investing feels productive. Buying. Selling. Chasing hot tips. As investors, we think we need to be doing something. But it can easily become compulsive — an addiction that’s fed by financial professionals who profit from keeping us hooked. In his award-winning book, Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors, my IFA colleague Mark Hebner explains why active trading is so tempting — and so destructive. He also sets out a rational alternative to acti

TEBI
Jun 5, 20251 min read


Ten timeless investment lessons from The Intelligent Investor
Speaking on Morningstar's The Long View podcast in May 2025, Wall Street Journal columnist Jason Zweig offered sobering advice for investors grappling with unprecedented market uncertainty. As global markets wrestle with President Trump's sweeping tariff policies, Zweig warned: "We don't know that fundamental rules haven't changed...but that's an awful lot of things to be right about" when making dramatic portfolio changes. Zweig's commentary comes as he prepares the latest e

TEBI
Jun 2, 20256 min read


How IRR manipulation deceives private equity investors
Private equity firms use IRR manipulation to claim impossible returns. KKR boasts 25.5% annually since 1976, Apollo claims 39%. But if KKR's first £31m fund truly compounded at 26%, it would be worth £2.6 trillion today. As Professor Phalippou explains, "IRR has become the theatre of private equity performance." With retail investors increasingly targeted, UK regulators must stop this deception.

TEBI
May 27, 20255 min read


Fund performance persistence: what the latest evidence shows
Bottom line up front: If you're choosing funds based on past performance, you're likely wasting your time and money. Comprehensive research spanning decades reveals that consistent outperformance among active fund managers is so rare it might as well be random chance — and the few exceptions typically reflect luck rather than skill. The investment industry loves to remind us that "past performance is no guarantee of future results," yet this disclaimer appears to fall on deaf

TEBI
May 26, 20256 min read


The case for working beyond retirement age
Retirement is an outdated concept. More and more people are finding that working later in life can boost health, purpose and income.

TEBI
May 19, 20255 min read


Don't let emotions affect your investment decisions
Even the most experienced investors aren’t immune to emotional influences. In fact, fear and overconfidence frequently cloud our investment decisions, often leading to poor outcomes. PAUL RICHARDS from Better Decisions explains that emotions evolved to keep us safe — but they don’t help much when it comes to modern investment decisions. Fear can drive us to sell at the wrong time, just as hope and greed might encourage excessive risk. The challenge is learning to spot when em

Robin Powell
May 18, 20254 min read


Active vs passive — a journalist's view
JONATHAN CLEMENTS is one of the best-known names in financial journalism. After starting his career writing glowing profiles of star fund managers, he began to see a pattern: most of them failed to deliver over the long run. Raised and educated in England, Clements moved to the United States after graduating from Cambridge University. His early years at Forbes magazine left him sceptical about active management. Even when a fund manager looked like a sure bet, the success rar

Robin Powell
May 18, 20253 min read


Hot funds look great — until they're not
Hot funds often attract a rush of investor cash. But new research shows they’re more likely to underperform once they’ve hit peak popularity. Here’s why chasing recent winners could leave you trailing the market.

TEBI
May 8, 20255 min read


Vanguard at 50: Proud history, bright future?
Vanguard’s 50-year journey has transformed how everyday investors access and benefit from the financial markets. As it marks this...

TEBI
May 2, 20253 min read


Tune Out The Noise: Have you seen it yet?
In a world of financial noise, a groundbreaking documentary advocates for evidence-based investing. It's time to Tune Out the Noise and...

TEBI
Apr 30, 20253 min read


Three positive consequences of the growth of indexing
The rise of indexing has been one of the most significant investment trends of the past few decades. While some critics worry it could...

TEBI
Apr 27, 20253 min read


Will Trump help active management recover its mojo?
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has investors on edge — but does more uncertainty mean it’s time to abandon passive funds in...

Robin Powell
Apr 22, 20255 min read
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