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How much passive investing is too much?
Warnings that index funds have broken the stock market all imply a threshold: a share of the market at which price discovery fails. Nobody making the argument names it. Owen Lamont, writing in the Financial Analysts Journal, argues that no such number exists short of complete passive ownership, and that what actually determines whether prices stay informative is who is left doing the trading. His case, the strongest peer-reviewed research against it, and what the performance
Robin Powell
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Private equity in 401(k)s: quick headlines, long timelines, hidden risks
Private equity in 401(k)s has been hailed as a breakthrough for American savers. But while the headlines promise fast change, the reality is slower, costlier and far riskier. History shows high failure rates, heavy fees and poor outcomes for investors. The winners may be asset managers, not workers.
Robin Powell
Aug 22, 20256 min read
The alternative fund graveyard: 75% have failed to last ten years
New Morningstar research reveals a shocking 75% alternative fund mortality rate. Of 1,345 alternative mutual funds that existed in 2015, only 341 survive today. As regulators push wider retail access to semi-liquid alternatives, Jeffrey Ptak's analysis shows three-quarters failed to deliver on promises of diversification and smoother returns. High fees, poor performance, and investor flight killed most funds within three years.
Robin Powell
Aug 22, 20255 min read
Poor endowment investment performance costing America's charities billions
Research analysing 374,351 US charities reveals shocking endowment investment performance failures that destroy billions in donor funds. Even sophisticated institutions with professional management consistently underperform simple index portfolios through excessive fees and poor decisions. The study exposes critical lessons for charity trustees worldwide who must maximise every dollar for their missions, and individual investors seeking to avoid the same costly mistakes.
TEBI
Aug 20, 202510 min read
Confirmation bias in financial advice: why we seek validation, not the truth
Confirmation bias in financial advice can lead people to seek validation rather than objective guidance. New research shows investors often choose advisers who confirm their preferences, boosting confidence but not decision quality. Recognising this bias helps protect long-term outcomes and highlights the value of evidence-based, objective advice.
TEBI
Aug 19, 20257 min read
AI investing: boom, bubble, or crash in the making?
Picture this: You're at dinner with friends, and someone excitedly announces their latest AI investing strategy—putting half their portfolio into artificial intelligence stocks. This scene plays out countless times, as the human brain sees AI's transformative potential and leaps to a seductive conclusion: concentrate everything on the obvious winner. History suggests this is precisely the wrong approach. Academic research demonstrates that concentrated investing carries dispr
TEBI
Aug 18, 20257 min read
International value has bounced back: what should investors do now?
International value is enjoying a powerful resurgence after a decade of underperformance. Driven by compelling valuations, governance reforms in Japan, and improving sentiment in Europe, the case for international value is backed by decades of academic evidence. Learn why it remains a core long-term opportunity for evidence-based investors seeking global diversification.
TEBI
Aug 15, 20258 min read
Future stock market returns may be lower: here's why
Multiple lines of evidence suggest future stock market returns will fall short of historical averages. Major institutions, legendary investors, and academic research all point to the same conclusion: expect 3-6% annual returns vs historical 8-10%. High valuations, demographic headwinds, and bond competition create structural challenges. Investors need realistic planning, global diversification, and evidence-based strategies.
TEBI
Aug 14, 20257 min read
The Woodford fines: will a penny ever be paid?
The FCA's £46 million Woodford fines may never be paid despite concluding a six-year investigation. With Woodford Investment Management holding just £30,000 in assets against the £40 million corporate penalty, collection looks impossible. Legal precedents show other firms typically pay regulatory fines, but the Woodford fines break this pattern due to insolvency. Both Neil Woodford and his firm have referred their penalties to the Upper Tribunal, meaning no payment is current
TEBI
Aug 13, 20254 min read
Do active funds beat the market during volatility? 2025's evidence suggests not
The relationship between active funds and volatility has long been debated, with fund managers claiming turbulent markets play to their strengths. 2025's Trump-driven chaos provided the perfect test case – yet 71% of active equity managers still underperformed passive benchmarks. Despite currency swings, sectoral rotations, and policy uncertainty, the 29% success rate barely budged from 2024's 28.8%. Academic evidence spanning 25 years confirms: volatility doesn't save active
TEBI
Aug 7, 202512 min read
Woodford's £5.9 million fine is a drop in the ocean
After six years, Neil Woodford faces a £5.9m fine - barely 4% of the £160m+ in fees he extracted from investors. With thousands losing their life savings in the fund collapse, this penalty is truly a drop in the ocean compared to the wealth destruction caused and personal enrichment gained.
TEBI
Aug 5, 20255 min read
Fund managers aren't bad at picking stocks, but they're terrible at this
Fund managers consistently fail at market timing despite claiming expertise, reveals the largest global study of mutual fund performance. While stock picking skills vary by country, timing abilities are universally poor across 21,000 funds in 35 nations. New research challenges industry claims about professional investment skills and fee justification.
TEBI
Aug 4, 20254 min read
Investment platform design: how making fees more visible changes investor behaviour
Investment platform design significantly influences investor behaviour, new eye-tracking research reveals. Simple changes like larger fonts for fund fees led participants to allocate 11.2% more to lower-cost options. The study shows how visual prominence affects investment choices, suggesting platforms could improve outcomes through better interface design without regulatory changes.
TEBI
Jul 21, 20255 min read
Beyond passive: systematic strategies to minimise index investing costs
Moving beyond traditional passive investing requires systematic strategies to minimise hidden costs that can erode returns by hundreds of basis points. This guide examines advanced fund selection, strategic trading, and tax-efficient approaches. We explore how Timeline Portfolios demonstrates that systematic strategies justify advisory fees through superior execution, whether pursuing DIY factor investing or accessing providers like DFA.
TEBI
Jul 16, 20258 min read
The Leeds Reforms: Why financial deregulation feels like déjà vu all over again
Chancellor Rachel Reeves' Leeds Reforms promise growth through financial deregulation, but they risk repeating pre-2008 mistakes. Pension funds face pressure to invest in expensive private equity, consumer protections are being quietly eroded, and banking safeguards dismantled. It's regulatory amnesia in action - and ordinary savers will pay the price.
TEBI
Jul 15, 20258 min read
The hidden costs of passive investing: how significant are they?
The hidden costs of passive investing can add hundreds of basis points annually beyond headline fees. New research reveals how index funds face invisible expenses from rebalancing friction, tracking errors, and market impact that never appear on fund fact sheets. UK investors may pay far more than the advertised 0.1% management charge.
TEBI
Jul 14, 202511 min read
Is Terry Smith genuinely skilled or did he just get lucky?
Terry Smith's Fundsmith Equity fund has underperformed for four years, losing billions in outflows. But is this evidence of declining skill or simply bad luck? Academic research reveals it takes 36-800 years of data to statistically prove a fund manager has genuine talent rather than benefiting from chance. Smith's 14-year track record, despite early success, is statistically meaningless. His recent struggles with NVIDIA, Apple and Novo Nordisk may look like stock-picking err
TEBI
Jul 8, 20257 min read
Through the looking glass: What the private equity industry doesn't want you to see
The private equity industry promises profound pension improvements for retail investors, but Oxford professor Ludovic Phalippou's research reveals a different reality. Like Alice in Wonderland, investors risk falling down a rabbit hole where fund managers capture £1 trillion in fees while delivering returns barely better than simple index funds.
TEBI
Jul 2, 20257 min read
Active fund fees: how inflated are they?
New research reveals active fund fees are far too high for the value they add. So how much is active management actually worth? Investors routinely pay substantial active fund fees, typically five to ten times more than passive alternatives. It's the equivalent of paying £7 or £8 for a pint of milk—but is this premium actually justified? The academic case against high active fund fees has been building for nearly three decades. Now, groundbreaking research by Andrew Ang and D
TEBI
Jun 30, 20255 min read
Can you spot a market bubble before it bursts?
Decades of research show that reliably spotting market bubbles before they burst is nigh on impossible. Despite warnings from experts, academic studies confirm market timing strategies consistently fail for most investors. Attempting to time markets leads to missed gains , higher transaction costs , and emotional stress. Instead, focus on diversification , controlling costs , and planning for volatility. The best defence against bubbles is preparation, not prediction.
TEBI
Jun 24, 20257 min read
Why beating the market is just a game of chance
The investing industry gives the impression that beating the market is all about skill, but the evidence tells us it's largely a game of chance This is the third article in our 12-part series on Mark Hebner's "Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors." Missed the previous steps? Catch up here on Step 1 and Step 2. If Nobel Prize-winning research wasn't enough to convince you that active investing is futile, perhaps the brutal statistics on stock picking
TEBI
Jun 19, 20253 min read
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