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How much passive investing is too much?
Warnings that index funds have broken the stock market all imply a threshold: a share of the market at which price discovery fails. Nobody making the argument names it. Owen Lamont, writing in the Financial Analysts Journal, argues that no such number exists short of complete passive ownership, and that what actually determines whether prices stay informative is who is left doing the trading. His case, the strongest peer-reviewed research against it, and what the performance
Robin Powell
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A New Year's resolution every investor should embrace
The most valuable New Year's resolution for investors in 2026? Tune out the noise. The evidence is clear: market forecasters are no better than coin flippers, yet we keep listening. Here's why ignoring predictions might be the best investment decision you make this year.
Robin Powell
Dec 30, 20259 min read
S&P 500 concentration risk: is your portfolio really diversified?
S&P 500 concentration risk is at historic highs. If you own a global tracker, your portfolio may be far less diversified than you think. Here's what you can do about it.
Robin Powell
Dec 19, 20252 min read
Does "buy the dip" actually work?
"Buy the dip" sounds like smart investing — wait for prices to fall, then pounce. But 60 years of evidence reveals the strategy underperforms passive investing more than 60% of the time. Here's why waiting for the perfect moment costs more than it saves.
Robin Powell
Dec 18, 20258 min read
Is private equity worth it? The numbers behind the hype
Is private equity worth it? New research shows PE's 3.8% annual edge over public markets is far smaller than the industry claims, has been shrinking since 2006, and partly disappears once you adjust for leverage, size, and sector exposure. With all-in fees reaching 6% per year, retail investors should ask why the velvet rope is coming down just as institutional outperformance has faded. The answer: the industry needs your money.
Robin Powell
Dec 11, 20258 min read
Why portfolio diversification matters more than ever
With the Magnificent Seven dominating the S&P 500, concentration risk is at historic highs. Here's why portfolio diversification remains your best defence.
Robin Powell
Dec 1, 20258 min read
Do active funds in downturns really protect you? What 26 years of data reveals
Active fund managers claim they earn their fees when markets fall. New Morningstar research spanning 26 years tests this claim. The findings: active funds in downturns do outperform more often, but markets rise 80% of the time, swamping any advantage. When COVID and 2022 stress-tested the theory, most active managers failed to protect investors. The promised shelter turns out to be little more than a coin flip.
Robin Powell
Nov 10, 20257 min read
The Terry Smith timing trap: why most investors lost money
Terry Smith's Fundsmith beat the market for a decade, then trailed four straight years. £3.31bn fled in 2024. Most investors lost money vs a tracker. Why? Timing. They bought high after stellar returns, sold low during underperformance. Jack Bogle's iron law: money arrives after gains, leaves during losses. Even star managers can't beat that.
Robin Powell
Nov 3, 20256 min read
Cathie Wood calls indexing 'a form of socialism'. Has she lost the plot?
When Cathie Wood declared index funds "a form of socialism", she joined decades of active managers attacking passive investing on ideological grounds. But proxy voting data reveals something awkward: ARK voted with management 99.2% of the time versus Vanguard's 98.5%. We examine the evidence on index fund governance, ARK's performance record, and why "passive investing destroys capitalism" rhetoric intensifies when active managers underperform.
Robin Powell
Oct 29, 202510 min read
Optimism as a business model: Why investment consultants can't afford to recommend simplicity
nvestment consultants have systematically raised their return assumptions for alternative assets since 2001 — not because performance improved, but because complexity generates fees. New research from Stanford and Harvard reveals how consultant optimism drives billions in pension allocations, despite mounting evidence that simple, low-cost indexed strategies often outperform alternatives-heavy portfolios. The entire boom may be built on structural conflicts rather than superi
Robin Powell
Oct 28, 202514 min read
You check your energy bill. Why not your investment fees?
You check your energy bill religiously. When your provider raised charges by £12, you noticed within days. You've compared broadband three times this year, saving £8 monthly. But when did you last calculate your all-in investment fees? That £3 broadband overcharge equals £36 yearly. A 1% overcharge on a £500,000 portfolio equals £5,000 annually—139 times more. Yet the smaller cost receives obsessive attention whilst the larger goes unexamined for decades. This article reveals
Robin Powell
Oct 27, 20259 min read
Fidelity's active funds: how good are they really?
Fidelity's active funds built their reputation on Peter Lynch's legendary returns. But 30 years of data reveals zero funds with statistically significant outperformance. Most telling? Fidelity's own $723 billion bet on zero-fee index funds—bigger than its flagship active fund. When Peter Lynch's company stops backing Peter Lynch's strategy, the evidence speaks louder than marketing.
Robin Powell
Oct 25, 20259 min read
Trump trades and the forecasting trap: why political betting reveals a costly investment truth
Trump trades—betting on presidential policies — seem obvious. Reality? Investors who bet against Trump taking action earned S&P 500 returns. Believers lost 20%.
Robin Powell
Oct 24, 202512 min read
Is it ever a stock-picker's market?
The so-called stock-picker’s market is a myth that fund managers use to justify their fees, whatever the market does. Decades of data show that even when conditions should favour active managers, most still underperform. The evidence is clear: simplicity, not stock-picking, wins in the long run.
Robin Powell
Oct 23, 20259 min read
Investing at market highs: three paths to overcoming paralysis
Investing at market highs often triggers fear and hesitation. Yet a century of market data shows that record peaks are a normal feature of long-term growth. This article explores three clear, evidence-based ways to approach investing at market highs without falling into paralysis.
Robin Powell
Oct 22, 202517 min read
The performance persistence myth: what new research tells us about the latest hot funds
Chasing last year’s top funds is seductive — and usually self-defeating. New evidence shows performance persistence is largely a mirage: most “winners” slip quickly, especially when markets get rough. Investors who keep costs low and own the market have far better odds of reaching their goals.
Robin Powell
Oct 20, 202511 min read
Does Warren Buffett beat the market? The statistical truth behind the Oracle's record
Warren Buffett built his fortune through active investing, yet tells his family to put 90% in index funds. Why? His 44-year record reveals the answer: from 1981-2002, he achieved statistically significant alpha. But from 2003-2024, his performance became indistinguishable from luck. Academic analysis shows even his early success was systematic factor exposure plus cheap leverage, not stock-picking magic. If Buffett couldn't sustain alpha in mature markets, your fund manager w
Robin Powell
Oct 18, 202515 min read
Is gold a good investment?
As gold soars to record highs in 2025, investors are asking the timeless question — is gold a good investment? History says otherwise. Drawing on 200 years of academic evidence, this article reveals how gold manias form, why even smart people get caught up in them, and why disciplined, diversified investors consistently come out ahead.
Robin Powell
Oct 14, 202517 min read
SJP's low-cost funds: how good are they?
SJP's low-cost funds, charging 0.2%, look competitive — but total costs matter more. What existing and prospective SJP clients need to know about value.
Robin Powell
Oct 9, 20257 min read
The defective telescope: three retirement planning mistakes even experts make
Three retirement planning mistakes destroy wealth you'll never use. Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler explains the defective telescope effect.
TEBI
Oct 6, 20259 min read
"Worse than a casino": why a top active fund manager recommends index funds instead
Stephen Yiu's fund returned 101% in three years. His advice to investors? Buy an index tracker instead—your odds of picking a winning active fund are "worse than a casino." Academic research reveals why even successful managers keep their own money in index funds. Here's how to escape the active management trap.
TEBI
Oct 5, 202510 min read
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