BLOG

New research from the *Review of Financial Studies* covering 56 years of data and eight asset classes shows that the popular inflation hedge — shares, gold, property funds, commodities — only protects against energy inflation. The slow, grinding core inflation that actually erodes purchasing power year after year goes unhedged. Here's what the data say, why the investment industry hasn't fixed it, and what to do instead.

Thinking about creating an optimized excerpt featuring a primary keywordPolicy uncertainty feels terrifying, but the academic evidence shows it's a poor guide to what your portfolio will actually do. Here's how to tell the difference between the forecast and the real risk.

The investors who stay calmest during market volatility aren't the bravest. They hold passive investing products that don't ask them to make decisions. Research from Morningstar, Vanguard, and academic studies shows that product design, not temperament, explains why passive fund investors trade less, hold longer, and capture more of their returns. UK flow data from the current Iran-driven selloff confirms the pattern in real time.

When markets look expensive, valuation anxiety pushes investors to brace for a crash. But history suggests the real risk is quieter — long stretches of disappointing real returns that erode wealth slowly, without the dramatic fall investors expect.

Bubble warnings spiked in late 2025, then faded — but AI stock valuations haven't budged. New research analysing over 5,000 crashes reveals why that's significant: at genuine peaks, warnings are rare and sceptics are ignored. Widespread concern may actually signal safety.

New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.

Does the January barometer really predict stock market returns? This Wall Street saying claims January's performance forecasts the whole year. But the evidence tells a different story. While the pattern appears accurate roughly 70% of the time, this success rate is misleading — markets rise in most years anyway. Before betting your portfolio on this calendar superstition, discover what the data actually shows.

A new study shows how equity duration reshaped markets after 1945, making stock-picking harder and strengthening the case for evidence-based investing.

Multiple lines of evidence suggest future stock market returns will fall short of historical averages. Major institutions, legendary investors, and academic research all point to the same conclusion: expect 3-6% annual returns vs historical 8-10%. High valuations, demographic headwinds, and bond competition create structural challenges. Investors need realistic planning, global diversification, and evidence-based strategies.

The investing industry gives the impression that beating the market is all about skill, but the evidence tells us it's largely a game of chance This is the third article in our 12-part series on Mark Hebner's "Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors." Missed the previous steps? Catch up here on Step 1 and Step 2. If Nobel Prize-winning research wasn't enough to convince you that active investing is futile, perhaps the brutal statistics on stock picking

Eugene Fama is one of several Nobel Prize-winning economists whose research undermines the case for using actively managed funds This is the second article in our 12-part series on Mark Hebner's Index Funds: The 12-Step Recovery Program for Active Investors. If you missed the first instalment on the addictive nature of active investing, catch up before continuing. In traditional recovery programs, the second step involves acknowledging a higher power. For investors trapped i

A debate has raged in recent years about the wisdom or otherwise of investing in government bonds. I’ve advocated their inclusion in portfolios for a very long time, and still do. But I have to say I’m less enthusiastic than I was, for reasons I’ll explain. But first, how did government bonds perform in the recent tariff crisis? After all, it’s when markets are volatile and stock values fall that bonds, such as Treasurys in the US and gilts in the UK, come into their own. As

President Trump's announcement on tariffs has caused a global market storm. Here are some tips on staying calm where investors panic.

Greater choice doesn't necessarily mean better outcomes for investors. Learn why active ETFs, private credit, and option-based ETFs may not

The investing industry loves to make bold predictions. Financial commentators often appear in the media claiming to foresee market trends or economic turning points. But as history has shown, these forecasts are rarely accurate. While some patterns like increased volatility are more predictable, no one truly knows where the market is headed next. That’s why basing your investment decisions on short-term forecasts can do more harm than good. As Professor ELROY DIMSON explains,

If I had £1 for every time I read that index funds are too heavily concentrated in big US tech stocks I would be a very rich man. It is undeniably true. The FT recently reported that the top ten companies accounted for 37.3% of the S&P 500, which, by historical standards, is a very high proportion. Even more remarkably, just 26 stocks made up half the entire value of the index — the lowest number since at least 1980. Several market commentators have warned that rising levels

The financial markets have changed beyond all recognition since the late 1960s and early 1970s. But many investment strategies haven't.