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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Robin Powell
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Why your inflation hedge protects against the wrong kind of inflation
New research from the *Review of Financial Studies* covering 56 years of data and eight asset classes shows that the popular inflation hedge — shares, gold, property funds, commodities — only protects against energy inflation. The slow, grinding core inflation that actually erodes purchasing power year after year goes unhedged. Here's what the data say, why the investment industry hasn't fixed it, and what to do instead.
Robin Powell
May 118 min read
The church of active fund management: what fund managers really believe
A new academic study reveals what active fund management really sounds like behind closed doors. King's College London professor Crawford Spence interviewed 28 senior fund managers and found an industry that runs on faith rather than evidence — privately conceding it overcharges and underperforms, and now pivoting to retail investors as institutional clients leave. Here's what they say off the record, and how to stop paying for someone else's faith.
Robin Powell
May 78 min read
Who really benefits when private equity buys your financial adviser?
Financial advice consolidation in the UK has put private equity in control of hundreds of firms. Here's what vertical integration and hidden conflicts mean for your money.
Robin Powell
May 57 min read
The star manager myth: how a phantom stock-picker beat the market
The star manager myth, exposed: a portfolio with no manager beat the NASDAQ by nearly double. The trick that explains real star managers too.
Robin Powell
May 28 min read
The disposition effect: why losing investors keep getting worse
New research on the disposition effect shows losses make investors sell winners faster and cling to losers harder. Here's how to break the cycle.
Robin Powell
Apr 247 min read
AI can predict 71% of what your fund manager does
Most fund manager AI systems operate on autopilot, closely tracking the index while charging premium fees for active management. If your portfolio is essentially running itself, why are you paying someone to sit in the cockpit?
Robin Powell
Apr 209 min read
Why gold's inflation hedge fails in a crisis
Gold is the world's most popular inflation hedge — and one of the least reliable. Drawing on 126 years of data and the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, this article examines why the gold inflation hedge fails precisely when investors need it most, and what actually protects purchasing power instead.
Robin Powell
Apr 138 min read
Why policy uncertainty is a terrible guide to investing
Thinking about creating an optimized excerpt featuring a primary keywordPolicy uncertainty feels terrifying, but the academic evidence shows it's a poor guide to what your portfolio will actually do. Here's how to tell the difference between the forecast and the real risk.
Robin Powell
Apr 98 min read
Wealth management underperformance: the exposed secret that could cost you millions
Y TREE's analysis of 550 portfolios found that 84 per cent of wealth managers underperformed in 2025. Wealth management underperformance cost investors up to a third of their expected returns — and most don't even know it's happening.
Robin Powell
Apr 710 min read
Why stock picking is even harder than you think
City of London skyscrapers including the Gherkin — the financial district reshaped by Big Bang in 1986, after which stock picking became a structurally losing game as research shows only 3.1 per cent of UK stocks generated all the market's real wealth over 50 years
Robin Powell
Apr 38 min read
Are government bonds really safe?
Are government bonds safe? Three centuries of UK and US data show they protect in recessions but fail during wars and pandemics — precisely when investors need them most. Here's what the evidence says, and two things you can do about it.
Robin Powell
Mar 309 min read
Collectible investments: the hidden cost of owning what you love
New research has put a price on the emotional pleasure of owning collectible investments. The cost is roughly 2.6 percentage points of annual return, and it doesn't stop at art and wine. From property to employer stock to ESG funds, the same invisible fee may be silently eroding your portfolio.
Robin Powell
Mar 2410 min read
Passive investing and market volatility: why the calmest investors aren't the bravest
The investors who stay calmest during market volatility aren't the bravest. They hold passive investing products that don't ask them to make decisions. Research from Morningstar, Vanguard, and academic studies shows that product design, not temperament, explains why passive fund investors trade less, hold longer, and capture more of their returns. UK flow data from the current Iran-driven selloff confirms the pattern in real time.
Robin Powell
Mar 2310 min read
100 years, 29,000 stocks, 46 winners: the case for indexing just got stronger
New research covering 100 years of US stock market data shows that just 46 firms out of nearly 30,000 drove half of all shareholder wealth creation — down from 89 in the original study. With wealth increasingly concentrated in fewer winners, the case for indexing has never been stronger. Here's what the numbers mean for your portfolio.
Robin Powell
Mar 208 min read
Nobody warns you before a bubble bursts
New research from Harvard Business School reveals that during every stock market bubble, the experts aren't sceptics being drowned out — they're true believers. Analyst forecasts soar, short sellers vanish, and the media barely whispers the word 'bubble'. Worse, the degree of optimism actually predicts crash probability. If nobody warns you before a bubble bursts, what can you do? Build a portfolio that doesn't depend on the alarm working at all.
Robin Powell
Mar 187 min read
HALO stocks: a new investment strategy or just the latest Wall Street story?
A glowing golden halo hovering above an ordinary cardboard box on a warehouse shelf, representing how HALO stocks are standard investments dressed up with compelling marketing
Robin Powell
Mar 168 min read
How much of your portfolio should be in stocks?
How much of your portfolio should be in stocks? It's one of investing's most important questions — and the standard answer is costing the average investor the equivalent of 2% of their lifetime consumption. Yale economists have finally built something better, and it fits in a spreadsheet.
Robin Powell
Mar 138 min read
The hidden cost of trading in retirement
New research suggests that trading in retirement increases after people stop working — and that the extra activity quietly erodes returns. Here's what the evidence shows, and why having more time isn't the advantage most investors assume.
Robin Powell
Mar 117 min read
Does AI accentuate investor biases?
Investors are turning to AI hoping it will cut through the emotional noise and deliver clearer, more rational financial decisions. But two recent studies suggest these tools don't neutralise investor biases — they absorb them. And the more advanced the model, the worse the problem may get.
Robin Powell
Mar 107 min read
Your fund family has outperformed? Yeah, right
Every year, some active fund families respond to the SPIVA scorecard with their own numbers — and those numbers always look better. They choose the start dates, benchmarks, and fee treatments that flatter them most. Here's how to see through it, and the one test that exposes what fund family marketing routinely hides.
Robin Powell
Mar 66 min read
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