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How much passive investing is too much?
Warnings that index funds have broken the stock market all imply a threshold: a share of the market at which price discovery fails. Nobody making the argument names it. Owen Lamont, writing in the Financial Analysts Journal, argues that no such number exists short of complete passive ownership, and that what actually determines whether prices stay informative is who is left doing the trading. His case, the strongest peer-reviewed research against it, and what the performance
Robin Powell
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The Bitcoin safe haven myth has been exposed (again)
The user wants a meta description snippet for SEO purposes, including the primary keyword "Bitcoin safe haven".DoneBitcoin was sold as digital gold — a Bitcoin safe haven for volatile markets. But every time a real crisis has tested that claim, it has failed. Here's what the evidence says.
Robin Powell
Feb 178 min read
Valuation anxiety: why expensive markets don't usually fall when investors expect
When markets look expensive, valuation anxiety pushes investors to brace for a crash. But history suggests the real risk is quieter — long stretches of disappointing real returns that erode wealth slowly, without the dramatic fall investors expect.
Robin Powell
Feb 1010 min read
The case for factor investing in emerging markets
Most investors either ignore emerging markets or hand their money to active managers who underperform. Academic research points to a better approach: factor investing in emerging markets, targeting the company characteristics that have persistently driven higher returns.
Robin Powell
Feb 710 min read
Seven things the tech sell-off tells us — and three things it doesn't
The tech sell-off wiped more than $800 billion from software stocks alone. Here are seven lessons evidence-based investors should take from it — and three things it doesn't tell us about what comes next.
Robin Powell
Feb 59 min read
Pension trustees, who's checking your fiduciary manager's homework?
A fiduciary manager presents performance data to pension scheme trustees — but who's checking whether those numbers tell the full story?
Robin Powell
Feb 38 min read
Should stock-picking columns be regulated?
Sunday Times columnist Ian Cowie's Apple ten-bagger makes a great story, but is it evidence that stock picking works? His own readers want benchmark comparisons — and the data is firmly on their side.
Robin Powell
Feb 24 min read
Why I invest in Avantis ETFs
Avantis ETFs give UK investors direct access to systematic factor investing for the first time. Here's why I own three of them — and what could go wrong.
Robin Powell
Jan 3011 min read
AI investment advice: What the chatbots get wrong
Consumer tests found ChatGPT scoring just 64% accuracy on financial questions. Accountants report clients losing real money. This Deep Dive examines what AI investment advice actually gets wrong — and what to do instead.
Robin Powell
Jan 2910 min read
Investment platform fees explained: how to avoid overpaying
Investment platform fees vary wildly — and small differences compound into serious money over time. Here's how to work out what you're really paying and whether it's time to switch.
Robin Powell
Jan 2810 min read
Fewer bubble warnings mean greater danger
Bubble warnings spiked in late 2025, then faded — but AI stock valuations haven't budged. New research analysing over 5,000 crashes reveals why that's significant: at genuine peaks, warnings are rare and sceptics are ignored. Widespread concern may actually signal safety.
Robin Powell
Jan 2710 min read
The private credit party is over. Guess who's cleaning up?
Billions are fleeing private credit funds as returns slide and redemptions surge. Financial historian Mark Higgins warns that retail investors aren't being offered a seat at the table — they're being positioned at the end of a speculative supply chain, left to absorb risks the smart money no longer wants.
Robin Powell
Jan 2612 min read
Buffett's investment strategy: it was systematic all along
What if Buffett's investment strategy was never about genius? New research shows 87% of his returns came from factors anyone can access.
Robin Powell
Jan 239 min read
Fund fees and performance: the link is getting stronger
New Morningstar research reveals the link between fund fees and performance has strengthened dramatically. A decade ago, some expensive funds generated enough alpha to partially justify their costs. Today, fees explain almost everything. The skill component has essentially vanished.
Robin Powell
Jan 229 min read
Active management still dominates — and the data proves it
Active fund managers keep warning about passive investing's dangerous rise. But new research covering $784 billion in institutional assets reveals active management still dominates — capturing 97% of all fees paid.
Robin Powell
Jan 216 min read
The investment factor: why companies that spend big often deliver small returns
The investment factor reveals a counterintuitive truth: companies that spend aggressively on growth tend to deliver lower returns than their cautious peers. With Big Tech pouring hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure, six decades of academic evidence suggest investors should be sceptical.
Robin Powell
Jan 208 min read
Is Terry Smith right to blame index funds for his struggles?
Terry Smith blames index funds for Fundsmith's five-year slump — but international market data, factor analysis, and 2024's high-dispersion conditions tell a different story. Here's what the evidence actually shows.
Robin Powell
Jan 156 min read
Buffer ETFs: protection, illusion or expensive reassurance?
Buffer ETFs are designed to limit stock market losses over a set period, usually in exchange for capping potential gains. Now becoming available to UK investors, these downside protection ETFs use options to cushion falls in markets such as the S&P five hundred. This article explains how buffer ETFs work, what they cost, and whether the trade-offs are worth it for long-term investors.
Robin Powell
Jan 145 min read
Why do mutual funds underperform? Because most "skill" is actually luck
Why do mutual funds underperform? New research from the University of Sydney reveals that at least 55% of fund performance is attributable to luck, not skill. Worse, luck actively predicts future underperformance: lucky funds attract inflows, grow too large, and lose their capacity to generate returns. Morningstar's five-star funds significantly underperform one-star funds in subsequent periods. Stop chasing yesterday's winners and own the market at low cost.
Robin Powell
Jan 56 min read
What history tells us about expected stock returns after a bull run
New research analysing 153 years of US market data reveals why expected stock returns over the next decade are likely to disappoint. The three forces driving returns — dividends, earnings growth, and P/E changes — rarely pull together when valuations are stretched. With the Shiller CAPE at 40 for only the second time in history, the maths suggests caution. Here's what disciplined investors should do.
Robin Powell
Jan 38 min read
Does the January barometer really work?
Does the January barometer really predict stock market returns? This Wall Street saying claims January's performance forecasts the whole year. But the evidence tells a different story. While the pattern appears accurate roughly 70% of the time, this success rate is misleading — markets rise in most years anyway. Before betting your portfolio on this calendar superstition, discover what the data actually shows.
Robin Powell
Jan 17 min read
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