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What is evidence-based investing?
Nobody can establish who first used the phrase 'evidence-based investing', and no regulator defines it. Robin Powell, who was given the name by Larry Swedroe in 2015 and is sometimes wrongly credited with coining it, sets out what it actually means: four tests of what counts as evidence, borrowed from a medical parallel that hit the same crisis twelve years ago. Including where he goes further than a global tracker, and why he holds that position less firmly than he used to.
Robin Powell
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Should you have private equity in your pension?
Private equity is heading into UK pension funds — backed by government policy and industry enthusiasm. But the evidence for ordinary savers capturing meaningful returns, after fees and illiquidity costs, is far weaker than the sales pitch suggests. Before your retirement savings are redirected, here's what the research actually shows.
Robin Powell
Mar 510 min read
Scott Adams: cartoonist, divisive commentator, scourge of active managers
Scott Adams damaged his own reputation in his later years. But long before that, the creator of Dilbert was using satire to make a serious, evidence-aligned case against active fund management — reaching tens of millions of readers along the way.
Robin Powell
Mar 26 min read
Why expected returns matter more than index concentration
The fund industry says index concentration is the big risk. But the evidence points elsewhere. Compressed expected returns are what really threaten your long-term wealth — and the right response is simpler and cheaper than the industry would have you believe.
Robin Powell
Feb 279 min read
The case against concentrated funds: new evidence on the downsides of conviction
A major Morningstar study of more than 5,800 funds has delivered a clear verdict on concentrated funds: they charge higher fees, deliver lower returns, and suffer deeper losses than their more diversified peers. The evidence suggests most investors would be better off on the main road.
Robin Powell
Feb 238 min read
Personal finance is broken — and deregulation won't fix it
Two leading economists argue that personal finance is broken at a structural level — and the UK government's response of deregulation and a cartoon squirrel won't fix it.
Robin Powell
Feb 209 min read
S&P 500 concentration: the scare story that's costing investors money
The fund industry warns that S&P 500 concentration makes your index fund dangerous. A major new study covering nearly a century of data tells a very different story — and suggests the real risk is listening to people who profit from your fear.
Robin Powell
Feb 189 min read
The Bitcoin safe haven myth has been exposed (again)
The user wants a meta description snippet for SEO purposes, including the primary keyword "Bitcoin safe haven".DoneBitcoin was sold as digital gold — a Bitcoin safe haven for volatile markets. But every time a real crisis has tested that claim, it has failed. Here's what the evidence says.
Robin Powell
Feb 178 min read
Valuation anxiety: why expensive markets don't usually fall when investors expect
When markets look expensive, valuation anxiety pushes investors to brace for a crash. But history suggests the real risk is quieter — long stretches of disappointing real returns that erode wealth slowly, without the dramatic fall investors expect.
Robin Powell
Feb 1010 min read
The case for factor investing in emerging markets
Most investors either ignore emerging markets or hand their money to active managers who underperform. Academic research points to a better approach: factor investing in emerging markets, targeting the company characteristics that have persistently driven higher returns.
Robin Powell
Feb 710 min read
Seven things the tech sell-off tells us — and three things it doesn't
The tech sell-off wiped more than $800 billion from software stocks alone. Here are seven lessons evidence-based investors should take from it — and three things it doesn't tell us about what comes next.
Robin Powell
Feb 59 min read
Pension trustees, who's checking your fiduciary manager's homework?
A fiduciary manager presents performance data to pension scheme trustees — but who's checking whether those numbers tell the full story?
Robin Powell
Feb 38 min read
Should stock-picking columns be regulated?
Sunday Times columnist Ian Cowie's Apple ten-bagger makes a great story, but is it evidence that stock picking works? His own readers want benchmark comparisons — and the data is firmly on their side.
Robin Powell
Feb 24 min read
Why I invest in Avantis ETFs
Avantis ETFs give UK investors direct access to systematic factor investing for the first time. Here's why I own three of them — and what could go wrong.
Robin Powell
Jan 3011 min read
AI investment advice: What the chatbots get wrong
Consumer tests found ChatGPT scoring just 64% accuracy on financial questions. Accountants report clients losing real money. This Deep Dive examines what AI investment advice actually gets wrong — and what to do instead.
Robin Powell
Jan 2910 min read
Investment platform fees explained: how to avoid overpaying
Investment platform fees vary wildly — and small differences compound into serious money over time. Here's how to work out what you're really paying and whether it's time to switch.
Robin Powell
Jan 2810 min read
Fewer bubble warnings mean greater danger
Bubble warnings spiked in late 2025, then faded — but AI stock valuations haven't budged. New research analysing over 5,000 crashes reveals why that's significant: at genuine peaks, warnings are rare and sceptics are ignored. Widespread concern may actually signal safety.
Robin Powell
Jan 2710 min read
The private credit party is over. Guess who's cleaning up?
Billions are fleeing private credit funds as returns slide and redemptions surge. Financial historian Mark Higgins warns that retail investors aren't being offered a seat at the table — they're being positioned at the end of a speculative supply chain, left to absorb risks the smart money no longer wants.
Robin Powell
Jan 2612 min read
Buffett's investment strategy: it was systematic all along
What if Buffett's investment strategy was never about genius? New research shows 87% of his returns came from factors anyone can access.
Robin Powell
Jan 239 min read
Fund fees and performance: the link is getting stronger
New Morningstar research reveals the link between fund fees and performance has strengthened dramatically. A decade ago, some expensive funds generated enough alpha to partially justify their costs. Today, fees explain almost everything. The skill component has essentially vanished.
Robin Powell
Jan 229 min read
Active management still dominates — and the data proves it
Active fund managers keep warning about passive investing's dangerous rise. But new research covering $784 billion in institutional assets reveals active management still dominates — capturing 97% of all fees paid.
Robin Powell
Jan 216 min read
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