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Writer's pictureRobin Powell

Trading stocks is like playing a Wimbledon champion

Updated: Nov 14





One of the most insidious aspects of sites like eToro and Robinhood is the impression they give that making money through trading stocks is easy.

Of course, placing a trade is easy; you can do it in seconds with just a few clicks. What is not easy is profiting from it.


The global financial markets are extremely efficient. There are millions of trades every minute; and every one of them provides us with the latest best-guess estimate of what a particular asset is worth. The chances that you, as an individual investor, have valuable insight or information that no one else does are extremely slim.


To make things even harder, the vast majority of trading nowadays is done by professionals. Unlike amateur traders, they work full-time; they have the latest data and technology at their disposal. The best ones are hugely intelligent and they have vastly more skill and trading experience than you do.


As William Bernstein wrote in his book, “The Four Pillars of Investing,” “trading stocks is like playing tennis against an invisible opponent; what the investor doesn't realize is that he's volleying with the Williams sisters.”


Behavioral finance expert Meir Statman used the same analogy when I interviewed him at a conference in California a few years ago. “The stock market is like playing tennis with Djokovic on the other side," he said. "It’s not like playing against a training wall. And so you always have to ask yourself, What is the advantage that I have over Djokovic? Do I have an extra-size racket? What do I have? And for most people the answer is nothing.”



The simple solution

So what’s the answer? Traditionally, financial advisers and journalists have encouraged investors, instead of trading stocks themselves, to pay active fund managers to do it on their behalf. The problem is that, once you factor in the cost of using them, only a tiny fraction of those managers succeed in beating the market in the long run. We can all see who the winners have been in the past, but identifying them in advance is all but impossible.


No, the logical response is not to play the active management game at all. Instead, just sit on the sidelines and settle for the market return by using low-cost index funds. Though I use the term "settle for," bear in mind that, over decades of investing, you will save yourself a fortune in compounded fees and charges — and that will leave with with higher net returns than the vast majority of active investors.


No, it’s not always easy. It requires patience and discipline. It means keeping your head when all about you are losing theirs. But it’s beautifully simple. And, as Part 3 of How to Invest, our video series for Wealth Matters, explains, it’s the most efficient, and the most rational, way to achieve your investment goals.


Remember: you might dream of serving like Ivo Karlovic or returning like Rafa Nadal, but you wouldn't want to step on court with them.

 

 




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